Warns of opposition vote-split ahead of 2027
Questions legality, timing of new party alignments
Political actor and All Democratic Alliance (ADA) promoter, Umar Ardo, has warned that the emergence of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) and the broader opposition realignment around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) may ultimately favour the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Ardo argued that the current political shifts point to a pattern of fragmentation within the opposition, a development he said could reshape electoral dynamics ahead of the 2027 general elections.
He made the remarks on Tuesday during an appearance on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM in Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State. According to him, electoral outcomes in Nigeria are often determined less by the strength of individual parties than by how opposition forces are distributed.
His comments follow a major development in the political landscape, with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso formally defecting to the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) on May 3, 2026. The move marked their exit from the crisis-hit African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The duo were received at the NDC national secretariat in Abuja by party chairman Cleopas Moses Zuwoghe and national leader Seriake Dickson. They described their defection as a strategic step to secure a “litigation-free” platform for their 2027 ambitions.
While the move is seen by its proponents as an effort to consolidate northern and southern support bases, it has already attracted legal challenges over the NDC’s registration status.
However, Ardo maintained that the proliferation of opposition platforms weakens the collective strength of the bloc. “Who is the major beneficiary? It is the ruling party,” he said, arguing that fragmentation inevitably consolidates power at the centre.
He linked the current trend to historical electoral patterns, warning that Nigeria may be drifting back to a three-bloc political configuration similar to that of 2023.
“We are just going back to what happened in 2023,” Ardo said, noting that opposition dispersion previously worked in favour of the governing party.
Drawing comparisons between past and present alignments, he argued that the opposition’s inability to maintain unity remains its greatest weakness. According to him, “In 2023 it was PDP, Labour and APC. In 2027 it will be APC, ADC and NDC,” a configuration he said could again split opposition votes.
Some analysts have echoed this concern, pointing to the 2023 elections where vote-splitting among opposition parties enabled the APC to secure victory with a relatively low percentage of the total vote.
Ardo also questioned the motivations behind the formation and recognition of new political parties, urging Nigerians to examine political developments through the lens of who stands to gain.
“Whether intentional or not, the question remains: who benefits? Because in politics, impact matters more than intention,” he said.
He stressed that his intervention is driven by concerns about democratic balance rather than personal ambition, warning that sustained fragmentation could weaken Nigeria’s political institutions.
According to him, perceptions of institutional neutrality are already under strain, particularly when legal and electoral processes appear to produce outcomes that consistently favour one direction.
Responding to allegations that his stance aligns with the ruling party’s interests, Ardo dismissed the claims, insisting that his position has been consistent and predates recent political realignments.
He disclosed that he had earlier challenged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s recognition of the NDC shortly after its announcement, pursuing both media advocacy and legal action.
Ardo said he also privately advised key political figures, including Kwankwaso, to conduct thorough due diligence before joining the new platform, warning of potential legal complications.
Despite these efforts, he noted that political momentum overtook caution, with events unfolding rapidly after his interventions.
He reiterated that his objections are rooted in what he described as procedural irregularities and legal inconsistencies in party formation processes.
“If we allow this, then anybody can just write a letter and go to court,” he warned, cautioning against precedents that could weaken regulatory oversight.
The ADA promoter further urged the judiciary and electoral bodies to safeguard institutional credibility, stressing that public trust depends not only on legality but also on perceived fairness and consistency.
He also raised concerns about the speed and uniformity of judicial decisions in political matters, suggesting that uneven timelines could fuel perceptions of bias.
Ardo concluded by calling on Nigerians to look beyond surface narratives and critically assess the implications of ongoing political developments.
He maintained that safeguarding due process is essential to preserving democratic integrity, warning that failure to do so could lead to a repeat of past electoral imbalances.
