..Why Consensus Cannot Be Held Hostage by One Man
“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence that it is not utterly absurd.” – Bertrand Russell
“In politics, shared madness is called consensus. But true consensus requires consent, not coercion.” – Christopher Hitchens
There is something about Ogun State politics that never fails to produce drama. From the days of the old Western Region to the Fourth Republic, the Gateway State has remained a theatre of ambition, alliances, and inevitable fallouts. Every election cycle follows a familiar script: friendships are forged, interests align, and somewhere along the way, someone cries betrayal.
The latest act in this unfolding drama is the contest for the Ogun East senatorial ticket. Much has been made of an opinion piece titled “The Great Ogun East Betrayal”—a passionate defence of Senator Gbenga Daniel and a sharp critique of Governor Dapo Abiodun.
It is, without doubt, a compelling read—dramatic, emotive, and persuasive. But the critical question remains: is it accurate?
Let us begin with clarity. Senator Daniel is no ordinary politician. A former governor and now a sitting senator, his political résumé commands respect. However, the suggestion that Ogun East APC would collapse without him, or that Governor Abiodun is courting political disaster by asserting influence, deserves closer scrutiny. Strip away the rhetoric, and a more nuanced reality emerges.
The Missing Context
One critical dimension absent from the original narrative is the issue surrounding property documentation. Senator Daniel reportedly built on a 12-plot expanse without a Certificate of Occupancy. When authorities requested compliance from residents, others obliged. He, however, is said to have relied on an interim court order.
Yet, the property remains intact—not because of defiance, but arguably due to restraint on the part of the current administration. This complicates any simplistic portrayal of victimhood and raises legitimate questions about political fairness and reciprocity.
No Man Is Indispensable
Nigeria has a long-standing tendency to elevate politicians into irreplaceable figures. History repeatedly disproves this notion. Political institutions endure; individuals do not.
The APC is bigger than any one man. Ogun East is bigger than any single ambition.
Claims of an “unmatched grassroots structure” must also be interrogated. Political structures, particularly in Nigeria, are often sustained by access to power and resources. When that access shifts, loyalties frequently follow. That is the nature of political organization—not permanence, but fluidity.
If the grip on the grassroots is as firm as claimed, one must ask: why was there no visible resistance to the endorsement process in Ijebu-Ode? Why did party stakeholders align as they did?
The answer may be uncomfortable, but it is necessary: influence, while real, is not absolute.
Re-examining the Numbers
Election statistics have been cited as proof of dependency. Yes, the 2019 and 2023 gubernatorial victories were closely contested. But context matters.
In 2019, Governor Abiodun emerged against an entrenched political structure—a notable achievement. In 2023, he faced a formidable opponent with strong regional backing and still secured victory.
It is also misleading to assume a seamless transfer of political support. Voters are increasingly independent. Split-ticket voting is now a reality. Support for one candidate does not automatically translate to another, even within the same party.
Additionally, generational shifts cannot be ignored. A significant portion of today’s electorate has no direct political connection to past administrations. Loyalty evolves. Influence fades.
What Really Happened in Ijebu-Ode?
The characterization of the stakeholders’ meeting as a “kangaroo endorsement” is exaggerated.
Those present—local government officials, party executives, grassroots leaders—represent the party’s operational base. Their collective decision cannot be dismissed simply because one influential figure was excluded.
Was excluding Senator Daniel politically wise? Arguably not. It created avoidable tension and poor optics. But flawed execution does not invalidate the outcome.
Democracy is not built on individual veto power. It rests on collective decision-making.
The Tinubu Factor: Assumption vs Reality
Assertions that President Bola Tinubu has issued directives favoring specific candidates remain speculative. No public statement confirms this.
Political support at that level is typically guided by loyalty, performance, and electoral value. Governor Abiodun’s role in delivering Ogun State during the last general election is a significant factor that cannot be dismissed.
Until there is clear evidence, projecting presidential preferences into local contests risks distorting reality.
Who Truly Endangers Party Unity?
There is legitimate concern about division within the party. Disunity weakens electoral chances—this is undeniable.
However, yielding to pressure tactics sets a dangerous precedent. If every aspirant resorts to brinkmanship, the party risks losing coherence entirely.
Political negotiation must not devolve into political blackmail.
The Question of Consistency
Recent political history also deserves attention. Instances of dual political alignment and shifting loyalties have raised questions about long-term commitment.
Equally important is the contrast in conduct when political roles were previously negotiated. There have been moments when others stepped aside in the interest of party cohesion. The expectation of reciprocity in such arrangements is not unreasonable.
Let Process Prevail
Ultimately, this contest should not be reduced to personalities. It is about process.
The solution is straightforward: allow a credible primary election.
Let delegates decide.
If Senator Daniel prevails, he should be supported.
If Governor Abiodun emerges, the same principle should apply.
That is democracy—simple, fair, and sustainable.
Final Thoughts
Calls for unity, respect, and realism are valid. But unity must be mutual. Respect must be reciprocal. And realism must be grounded in facts, not sentiment.
No individual holds a monopoly on political relevance.
The APC in Ogun East has weathered storms before. It will survive this one. The real test is whether maturity and restraint will guide its leaders—or whether ego will dictate the outcome.
As history reminds us, true leadership is not about appearance, but performance. It is not enough to wear the image of strength; one must demonstrate it through action, discipline, and responsibility.
Governor Dapo Abiodun’s supporters argue that his record reflects such leadership. Whether that translates into broader political endorsement remains to be decided—not by rhetoric, but by process.
Signed:
Dr. Arabambi Abayomi (FBAU)
Convener, Sustainability of Ogun State and Dapo Abiodun Legacy Beyond 2027
